Grading Profit Optimizer
Pick a card. See what it's worth raw, what each grader pays, and net ROI after fees + shipping. The math is exposed so you can override your own judgment when your copy is unusually clean.
All cards Pokémon Base1 1Ed
Charizard (1st Edition Holographic)
Each cell shows the deterministic net — the math if your card hits that exact grade. Includes raw cost, grading fee, return shipping, and eBay fee. The Best outcome badge marks the highest-net cell. The hero's Average expected line above weights these by the actual grade-distribution probability.
- Raw cost −$5,500
- Shipping −$5
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$729
- Raw cost −$5,500
- PSA grading fee −$9,999
- Shipping to grader −$15
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$10,733
- Raw cost −$5,500
- PSA grading fee −$9,999
- Shipping to grader −$15
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$112,625
Each cell shows the deterministic net — the math if your card hits that exact grade. Includes raw cost, grading fee, return shipping, and eBay fee. The Best outcome badge marks the highest-net cell. The hero's Average expected line above weights these by the actual grade-distribution probability.
- Raw cost −$5,500
- Shipping −$5
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$729
- Raw cost −$5,500
- BGS grading fee −$125
- Shipping to grader −$15
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$15,900
Each cell shows the deterministic net — the math if your card hits that exact grade. Includes raw cost, grading fee, return shipping, and eBay fee. The Best outcome badge marks the highest-net cell. The hero's Average expected line above weights these by the actual grade-distribution probability.
- Raw cost −$5,500
- Shipping −$5
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$729
- Raw cost −$5,500
- CGC grading fee −$100
- Shipping to grader −$15
- eBay fee (13.25% + $0.30) −$6,493
We don't have enough recent SGC sales for this card to project economics confidently. Try PSA, BGS, or CGC, or check back as our nightly comp sync builds out.
Price history
Recent sales
Recent eBay sales activate after the nightly refresh runs.
The refresh script (factory/scripts/refresh_ebay_optimizer_data.py) writes
to factory/data/ebay_optimizer_cache.json. Until that cache populates for
this card, no sales appear here — we don't show fabricated comps.
Featured opportunities
Top 19 GRADE and WATCH verdicts across the 73 cards we have verified per-grade comp data for. Search above to look up any of 50,016 cards in the catalog — cards outside the detail scope show an honest empty state until the comp pipeline accumulates enough data to compute a verdict.
How the math works
For each grader (PSA, CGC, BGS, SGC, TAG) we look at the public population report and compute the probability your raw card lands at each grade bucket: 10 / 9 / <9. Multiply each probability by the 90-day median sold-comp price for that grade, and sum to get expected value (EV).
Net profit = EV − raw price − grader fee − return shipping − eBay sales fee. The eBay fee is 13.25% of expected sale price plus $0.30 per transaction, toggleable in the header. The verdict is GRADE if net profit exceeds $20 — that's the threshold below which the round-trip risk and time isn't worth the upside.
A grader is flagged insufficient sample if total_graded is below 50 — probability estimates need a baseline of submissions to be meaningful, and on tiny samples a single oddly-graded card distorts the rate.
Raw prices come from live TCGplayer market prices via the Pokémon TCG API and Scryfall, refreshed on the nightly cycle. Pop counts and per-grade sale comps come from public PSA POP Report and recent eBay sold listings.
Grading economics & partner-data integration
All 50,016 cards in the catalog are searchable. Per-grade comp data (the input the optimizer needs to compute a verdict) currently exists for 73 hand-curated cards. Coverage expands every day via the hybrid comp pipeline (active eBay listing observation → disappearance-detection → inferred sale prices) and will scale further once the GemRate partnership and eBay Marketplace Insights API integration land.
The math is unchanged at scale. The verdict structure, the per-grader probability bars, and the EV breakdown are the same for one card or 50,016.